Monday, April 11, 2005

The Great Real Estate Bust, or Rust

The housing market, overall, seems to be slowing, or at least showing signs of slowing. Of course, there are still some sizzling markets, such as Southern California and Southern Florida, where large percentages of buyers are real estate investors, pushing home prices beyond the reach of almost every citizen.

So when is this speculation going to cause the market to pop?

Even some of the biggest bubble busters believe that the market could continue some of its frenzied pace for another year or two, as long as rates don't spike.

Immigration is almost certain to continue to drive demand, and as long as jobs and income growth continue, there is no reason to believe that home prices won't retain their value or even appreciate, many economists argue.

Nationwide, and especially in many hot markets, apartment vacancies are falling and pushing rents higher. Los Angeles, one of the most mentioned "bubble" markets, currently has a very strong rental market. Since rising rents are the opposite of what would be expected in a "bubble" market, one is left to question the word, bubble.

Nonetheless, rates are going up, and as that happens, more and more Americans will be priced out of the real estate market. Additionally, the real estate boom has been growing jobs and consumer spending. In just the last two years Americans have taken almost $400 billion in value from their homes in a spending spree that has floated the economy. What happens if that ends?

Moreover, as home prices have shot higher, many buyers have become quite creative financing their home purchases and risk getting burned in the next few years. When this threat is combined with higher rates, reduced mortgage activity, and reduced home building, jobs could be lost.

Without really good news from somewhere else in the economy, these factors are sure to eventually have an affect on home prices. Ultimately, whether the real estate market just rusts a bit, or busts, has not yet been determined.

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